Climate and War

THE CLIMATE COST OF WAR: THE OVERLOOKED LINK

War not only causes terrible human suffering, but it can also contribute to climate change.

Conflict and climate change are two of the most pressing global issues of our time – with a growing body of research revealing the ways in which they are connected.

Beyond its devastating human toll, war’s environmental impacts are increasingly gaining attention in the context of climate change.

The world's armed forces are among the largest institutional users of fossil fuels. Jets, tanks and warships guzzle vast quantities of fuel, generating immense greenhouse gas emissions. In wartime, those emissions surge, alongside catastrophic damage to the environment and ecosystems.

Through its latest project, ARIJ - the leading non-profit for investigative journalism in the Arab world - sheds light on the links between war and climate collapse.

Starting in Gaza, local journalists document how war can generate large quantities of Carbon Dioxide emissions, damage biodiversity, disrupt carbon sinks, spread toxic pollution, and force people into unsustainable ways of living - all of which contribute to environmental degradation and may accelerate climate change.

CARBON EMISSIONS

In the relatively small area of the Gaza Strip, 652,000 metric tonnes of Carbon Dioxide equivalent (tCO2e) were generated in only the first 120 days of the war since October 2023, according to estimates by researchers in the UK and US.

That amount, the researchers calculate, is greater than the annual emissions of 26 individual countries and territories. Almost 90% of that amount is estimated to be directly linked to Israel’s aerial bombardment and ground invasion of Gaza.

The ARIJ project focuses on first-person, human stories — hearing directly from those living amid the continuing war and its consequences.

SCORCHED EARTH

We meet Entisar Najjar, a farmer who shares the heartbreak of losing her fields to the war on Gaza.

Israel’s bombardment of Gaza has devastated the region’s agricultural sector. Up to 82% of croplands have been damaged, according to the latest findings by the World Bank, European Union and United Nations.

The destruction of farmland, orchards, and olive groves has made it harder for many Palestinians in Gaza to earn a living and feed themselves.

With the loss of trees and vegetation, the earth loses vital carbon-absorbing allies in its fight against global warming.

The Israeli military says it follows international law and attempts to limit damage to agricultural areas and the environment.

Researchers and environmental organisations say the destruction of agricultural land and infrastructure by Israel in Gaza is a deliberate act of ecocide.

DESPERATE MEASURES

In a ruinous and seemingly post-apocalyptic landscape, we meet Tahseen Reehan and Mahmood Abu Wardeh burning plastic to produce synthetic fuel.

Fuel is scarce in the besieged Gaza Strip with the Israeli authorities tightly controlling its supply. With critical infrastructure destroyed by the war, people have turned to plastic-burning as a desperate means of survival.

But this practice carries a heavy cost. Burning plastic releases toxic pollutants that endanger human health and the environment, while also emitting greenhouse gases that accelerate climate change. Because plastic is derived from fossil fuels, its combustion not only worsens global warming but also deepens the local environmental and public health crises.

Israel’s blockade on Gaza – restricting the delivery of food, fuel and medical aid - has forced Palestinians into increasingly unsustainable and hazardous ways of living.

THE CARBON COST OF REBUILDING

If and when the war ends, any reconstruction that follows will come with a considerable climate cost.

We meet Sayyed Al-Aqqad, walking through the debris of his destroyed home - planting new seeds in an ever-hopeful effort to regenerate life from the ruins.

The carbon footprint of conflict doesn’t end with the fighting. The immense energy required for clearing debris and reconstruction, once the guns fall silent, drives emissions even higher.

A United Nations report stated that by December 2024, 69% of all structures in Gaza had been destroyed or damaged. An earlier report, dated August 2024, estimated total debris generated by Israel’s war on Gaza at almost 41 million tonnes - a volume of debris 14 times greater than the combined total from all conflicts over the past 16 years. Given that the war has continued well into 2025, these figures are now likely even higher.

Researchers estimate that transporting all the debris by trucks to landfill sites could generate over 55,000 tonnes of Carbon Dioxide (CO2) equivalent. Further carbon emissions would result from the mechanised crushing of rubble for recycling in reconstruction.

The debris may also contain human remains, asbestos, and other hazardous substances, posing risks to groundwater and soil, as well as to human health.

Rebuilding Gaza is expected to produce further significant carbon emissions, primarily from the manufacturing and transport of construction materials and the use of heavy machinery.

MILITARY INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX

Behind modern warfare is a military-industrial complex that manufactures, tests and transports weaponry – all processes which require energy derived from fossil fuels.

The United States has the largest military-industrial complex in the world—and it comes at a steep environmental cost.

The U.S. Department of Defense is the largest institutional emitter of greenhouse gases globally and the top energy consumer in the U.S., according to Professor Neta Crawford, author of ‘The Pentagon, Climate Change, and War: Charting the Rise and Fall of U.S. Military Emissions’.

Even outside of active conflict, the U.S. military emits vast amounts of carbon through daily operations across its global network of over 700 bases.

A 2022 report by the Conflict and Environment Observatory estimates that armed forces worldwide contribute around 5.5% of global greenhouse gas emissions. If counted as a single entity, they would rank as the fourth-largest emitter, just behind India and ahead of Russia.

EXEMPTION

Acquiring precise and current data on military emissions from most countries is extremely difficult. Much of it is unavailable or deliberately withheld.

During the 1997 Kyoto Protocol negotiations, the United States lobbied successfully for an exemption from mandatory reporting of military emissions, citing national security concerns. This free pass from reporting has persisted and as a result, military emissions remain largely unreported and unregulated, obscuring the true climate cost of global conflict.

VICIOUS CIRCLE

While war can potentially accelerate the impacts of climate change, there is also the possibility that climate change may contribute to sparking conflict. As climate shocks and extreme weather intensify, they can increase competition for scarce resources and drive displacement and migration—conditions that heighten societal tensions and the potential for violence.

Can humanity ever hope to reach net-zero carbon emissions, achieve sustainability, and confront the climate crisis while continuing to wage war?

The outlook is troubling. Global conflict is rising, not falling. Conflict-affected areas have grown 65% since 2021, now covering 6.15 million km² - nearly twice the size of India -according to the most recent Conflict Intensity Index, published by risk analysts Verisk Maplecroft in late 2024.

Yet if war can worsen the climate crisis, peace can become a powerful climate solution. Investing in peace, sustainability, and justice together offers a path toward a liveable future for all.